And neither are you.. I am telling you what you know perfectly well. The airlines have considerably more information about the likely "turn up rate" of a flight than in the past.
First, because many more tickets than in the past are flight specific and not changeable or refundable in the event of a no-show. Second because online check-in provides a much more accurate picture of the numbers likely to check-in, notwithstanding the "no shows" for traffic, etc.. and third because people are expected to arrive at the airport considerably earlier than in the past to go through the TSA charade. By 1h40 before departure, the airlines have a pretty good idea of the position they are in vis-a-vis a particular flight and we both know that. It might not be the absolute final number, but it is perfectly possible by this time that they actually have more passengers than seats.
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